Cause for Concern

We’re entering the part of the season where the good teams are starting to really find their stride and making last-minute, minor adjustments to prepare for the playoffs.  The Celtics, however, are experiencing just the opposite, and almost seem lost right now.  Following their loss to the Pacers in Indianapolis Monday night, Boston is now 5-7 in their last twelve games and four of those losses have been suffered at the hands of teams with losing records.

This hardly resembles the results synonymous with a team who is competing for a NBA championship, and their recent play has raised some major doubts concerning those pursuits.  The quality of opponents is not the only alarm that has sounded over the last couple weeks.  Their offensive efficiency has dropped off severely.  In those twelve games, the Celtics have only been able to eclipse the 90-point mark four times, and in those games they have only been victorious in one of them.

Taking a further look into the past twelve games, Boston’s field goal percentage has dipped precipitously to 44.7% (almost 5% below their season average).  Once a major advantage for this team, they have only reached the 50% plateau twice within that span.  Even more telling of their recent struggles, one of those efforts came in a loss at home to the Clippers, who have an abominable road record of 8-28 this season!

Newly acquired players have struggled to become comfortable in their roles with their new team.  Nenad Krstic started out very strongly, but has really come back down to earth over the past couple weeks.  Jeff Green has shown flashes of promise, but has not been able to provide any sense of consistency on either end of the court.  Troy Murphy, Sasha Pavlovic, and Carlos Arroyo have barely seen any court time and Murphy is now battling an ankle injury.

Delonte West’s return to the lineup was thought to be a sign of good things to come, but that has not been the case.  Injuries on the frontline remain a major point of concern, especially after trading away Kendric Perkins.  The sentiment among the organization was that Shaquille O’Neal would be able to step in and fill that void created by Perkins’ departure.  Obviously, that has not yet proven to be true, as he has not played in a game since February 1^st.

Recent reports have stated that he has personally targeted April 3^rd against the Pistons as a potential return date, but that seems a bit optimistic considering he was recently seen wearing a boot to prevent swelling on the achilles that his plagued him for the better part of the past two months.  It’s no secret that his return and impending health are incredibly pivotal to Boston’s post season success.

Jermaine O’Neal is another big that remains on the sidelines for the C’s.  He underwent arthroscopic knee surgery on February 4^th and has recently rejoined the team as he feels healthy enough to finally resume practicing.  This is certainly a positive sign, but the expectations of his contributions going forth should be severely limited.  He has only managed to appear in 17 games all season and hasn’t stepped on the court since January 10^th.

The story is not just focused on the Celtics’ struggles, as Miami and Chicago have capitalized on their latest demise.  Boston has not only relinquished the top spot in the Eastern Conference to the Bulls, but they also find themselves in a second-place tie with the Heat, although the Celtics do, ultimately, hold the tie-breaker against Miami.  The gap between Boston and Chicago is now at 2 games.  

Fortunately for the Celtics, the ability to control their own destiny is still fairly within reach.  They only have nine games remaining in the regular season, but they play both Miami and Chicago.  Unfortunately for the Celtics, though, both of those happen to be road games.  They should serve as great litmus tests down the stretch and help determine what the legitimate expectations should be regarding the upcoming playoffs and their aspirations to return to and win the NBA Finals.

Crunch time has arrived and that usually bodes well for teams with experience.  But, the line between experience and old age seems to be growing thinner with each passing game.  Look for Doc Rivers and the veterans to really exert their influence on the rest of the team and set the tone in the remaining regular season games heading into the post season.  Let’s cross our fingers and hope that experience wins out for at least one more year.  It should be an exciting and challenging playoff season because, along with some formidable opponents, time now also appears to be an enemy of the Celtics.

Top 5 Double Digit Seeds to Make a Run to the 2011 Sweet 16

Let the madness begin!  It's finally here.  March madness is upon us once again, and so is the stressful process of trying to pick that perfect bracket.  So, here's a little assistance if you're having difficulty determining where this year's upsets will occur. 

1.  Gonzaga-  Located in the inexplicably accommodating Southeast region, America's former Cinderella team has a legitimate shot at surprising a couple teams in route to a Sweet 16 bid.  As a 11 seed, they play an incredibly inconsistent and inexperienced St. John's squad.  The loss of D.J. Kennedy in the Big East Tournament makes them somewhat susceptible as well.   Kennedy was not only their third leading scorer, but also one of the few upperclassmen on a very young team. 

If they are able to escape that initial matchup, they would then face the winner of BYU and Wofford.  Assuming that that the 3 seed, BYU, comes out on top, they are also a very vulnerable team who has also recently lost on their best players.  Brandon Davies was controversially excused from the team after violating the school's honor code.  He was their leading rebounder, shot-blocker and third leading scorer.  BYU has struggled to maintain any sort of consistency on the offensive and defensive ends of the court since his dismissal.

2.  Michigan State-  Also found in the Southeast region, this 10 seed owned an early season top ten ranking and was considered a veritable threat for the national championship at one point.  Inconsistent play and discipline issues have plagued them throughout the course of the entire season, but they are loaded with talent and have a caoch in Tom Izzo who thrives in this tournament.  Their first round matchup with UCLA is not an overly difficult opponent, and a victory over the seventh seeded Bruins would not come at too much of a surprise.

Projecting ahead to the next round, they will most likely be pitted against the Florida Gators.  No stranger to deep tournament runs themselves, Florida won back-to-back championships just a few seasons ago.  As a two seed, they are considered highly over-valued considering they were not even able to win the SEC title, which was uncharacteristically weak this year.  Florida has a very experienced squad, but their guard play is suspect and that is something that usually is the difference between success and failure this time of year.  Michigan State's strong suit is their back court with senior guards Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers.

3.  Utah State-  Sensing a trend in the Southeast region, this 12 seed has a formidable opponent in the first round against Kansas State.  Kansas State is a team who had very high preseason aspirations who underachieved for most of the year, but has come on late.  Ironically enough, Utah State is actually ranked ahead of Kansas State in the AP polls.  Utah State is currently ranked #19 in the country and K State is at #21.  Utah State has compiled a record of 30-3 this year and will hope to carry their tremendous season into the Sweet 16 and possible beyond.

If they are able to edge the Wildcats in round one, their second-round opponent, will be the winner of the Wisconsin/Belmont contest.  Wisconsin, the four seed, will be considered the favorites to move on, but either would be a favorable matchup for Utah State.  Wisconsin struggles mightily on the offensive end.  In the Big 10 semi-finals, they only managed to put up 33 points in a loss to Penn State.  Belmont, also a upset favorite, could move on against the offensively-challenged Badgers which would create a mid-major battle for a spot in the Sweet 16.

4.  Missouri-  Finally able to break away from the Southeast, the Tigers are the 11 seed in the West region.  Matched up against the Cincinnati Bearcats (6 seed) in the first round, their aggressive style of play and relentless full-court defensive pressure could cause their opponents fits.  Cincinnati has also struggled to maintain any consistency in a brutal Big East Conference and the experience that might be required to defeat a team like Missouri, is certainly not their forte.

A game with the UConn seems inevitable if they were advance.  The third-seeded Huskies are an incredibly skilled bunch who have one of the best point guards and play makers in the entire country.  Kemba Walker is beast and has the ability to single-handedly put the team on his back and take a game over.  However, they just completed a grueling 5 games in 5 days Big East tournament, which they won, and the potential negative effect of that stretch remains to be seen.  Jim Calhoun is one of the best coaches the tournament has, but the fatigue factor might be too much to overcome, especially against a team that will press for an entire 40 minutes.

5.  Richmond-  A relatively unknown team, the Richmond Spiders are the 12 seed in the Southwest region.  A surprisingly tough A-10 conference boasts three teams in this year's tournament.  The Spiders are the lowest seeded of the three teams, but have a decent matchup with the fifth-seeded Vanderbilt Commodores.  Coming out of a very weak SEC Conference, Vanderbilt struggled down the stretch losing three of their final five games with their three losses coming against tournament teams and their two victories came against non-tourney opponents.

Provided they can pull off their opening round upset, the most likely scenario would have them facing the four seed, Louisville.  The Louisville Cardinals are another team rising from the powerful Big East Conference.  Although their run in the Big East tournament wasn't quite as demanding as Uconn's, they still played three games in three days with one of them going onto overtime.  Therefore, if Richmond can capitalize on some potentially tired legs, they could be another upset special waiting to happen.

Hurry up and make those last-minute alterations so you can beat those office pool deadlines.  Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the most exciting two weeks of collegiate athletics!

The Heat Not so Hot

What a difference a year makes.  Last July the Miami Heat was hosting pep rally parties that would make Charlie Sheen envious.  From the elaborate pyrotechnic displays to the premature, celebratory dance moves to the ridiculous self-proclamations of 6 NBA titles; these same players were reduced to bewildered, sobbing superstars after Sunday’s loss to the Chicago Bulls.

It was Miami’s fourth consecutive loss and it dropped them to third place in the Eastern Conference.  They have now lost five of their last six contests, including an embarrassing 30-point blowout to the San Antonio Spurs, and have failed to beat any of the top teams since Christmas day, when they beat the Lakers in L.A.

In an interesting post-game revelation, their coach, Eric Spoelstra, in an effort to prove their desire to win, indicated that there were several players crying in the locker room after the game.  This, of course, incited a media blitz on a team who once considered themselves as an invincible, unbeatable force who was going to obliterate the rest of the league and rewrite the history books along the way.

The Heat now has an incredibly underwhelming record of 14-18 this season against teams with a winning record.  Well, they better save up some of those tears, because their schedule does not get any easier.  Their next six opponents all having winning records and include top teams such as the Spurs, Lakers, Thunder and Hawks.

This type of scrutiny has to be music to Celtic players and fans.  All the attention is being paid to the under-achievements of the Heat while Boston continues to pile up the wins.  They are now five games clear of the Miami Heat in the loss column with only 21 games to play.  Despite numerous injuries, the Celtics remain on a roll, and don’t look now, but the Spurs have actually dropped a couple games recently and the Celtics have moved within three games of the best record in the entire NBA.

With the recent success of Boston, it has allowed them to rest ailing big men Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal without much urgency to rush their return.  Delonte West is still a little banged up and his health will be a vital component to the Celtics post-season aspirations.  With West’s absence, the Celtics looked to add some depth in the backcourt as they signed guard, Carlos Arroyo.

A quiet move that went mostly unnoticed, Arroyo was once the starting point guard for the Miami Heat, but he was casually discarded by the Heat in order to make room for the newly acquired Mike Bibby.  This was a good signing for the C’s.  He is a capable ball handler who possesses a pass-first mentality that could be a perfect fit as the primary back-up to Rondo.  In addition to his willingness to distribute the basketball, he has shot 44 % from three-point land this season. 

His skills could provide a proficient complimentary role and his desire for revenge against his former team could add a little more fuel to the fire in this newly formed rivalry if these two teams were to meet up with one another in the post season.

At this point, however, it doesn’t seem as though the Heat will even make it that far.  As the standings sit today, the Heat would have to make it to the Eastern Conference finals in order to match up with the Celtics, and that seems like a pretty tall task at the moment.  The fact is, Miami is a combined 0-6 against the two teams currently seated above them in the standings (Chicago and Boston).

Therefore, if the Heat wants to be considered as legitimate championship contenders, they better stop the crying and figure out a way to change their approach to the way they are playing these games, because, amazingly enough, just passing the ball to Lebron and Dwayne Wade and hoping for the best, isn’t working out so well.  I think the Orlando Magic coach, Stan Van Gundy summed it up best:

“I do chuckle a little bit when they sort of complain about the scrutiny they get… My suggestion would be if you don’t want the scrutiny, you don’t hold a championship celebration before you’ve even practiced together… I think the players thought it was going to be easy and they were going to roll over everybody… It hasn’t materialized that way up to this point.”

I couldn’t have said it better myself.  This new twist certainly sets up for an interesting finish to the season and it looks like the Celtics, even with all the changes and new faces, have set themselves up for another potentially successful post season run.  We’ll see how it plays out, but let’s hope the only tears the Celtic players cry this year are tears of joy after winning another NBA Championship.

Celtics Get Their Man

Take that, Miami!  Score another victory for the Celtics over the Heat as free agent, Troy Murphy, has chosen to sign on with Boston for the remainder of the season.  Although this win will not actually be registered in the standings, this has to be a significant loss to a Heat team who was desperately pursuing Murphy.

The decision came as somewhat of a surprise to me, because the situation in Miami offered him the opportunity of a lot more playing time due to their lack of the depth on the front line.  Of course, I am a little biased, but looking at it from a neutral perspective, if the goal is to win a championship, than it had to be an easy decision for Murphy.

The Celtics are 3-0 in their head-to-head match ups against the Heat this season, and Miami has posted a mediocre record of 14-15 against teams with winning records.  Not exactly championship material.  Though, the Heat were not complete losers in this buyout bargain period.  They signed veteran point guard, Mike Bibby, who just completed his contractual buyout after being traded from the Hawks to the Washington Wizards.

Bibby will likely fill a massive hole that Miami has had all year long at that position.  It is assumed that he will eventually supplant Mario Chalmers as the starter and finally provide them with a player who can set up their half-court offense late in games, something that has consistently plagued this team in close games against good teams.  This will allow LeBron James to stay at his more natural position as well as add a competent ball handler and an additional three-point threat.

It remains to be seen if any other moves are on the Horizon for the C's, but things are certainly looking a lot more positive with this key acquisition.  As this buyout bonanza continues look for Boston to pluck out at least one more of these fresh-on-the-market free agents.  Keep an eye on Corey Brewer and Samuel Dalembert, as buyout rumors are surrounding these players and their decisions could help swing the balance of power among the championship contenders once again.  I'll keep an an ear to the ground and keep you posted on any new developments.

Celtics Prepare for Life After Perkins

As we flip our calendars to the month of March, the new-look Celtics were able to pull out a victory late Monday night to finish up their four-game, West coast road trip.  The C’s will now return home to begin a critical stretch as they strive to maintain the top spot in the Eastern conference and prepare for another strong playoff push.

Still a rather depleted group, the Celtics were able to escape back to Boston, posting a 3-1 record in the four games following the All-Star break.  Their record improved to 2-1 after the surprising trade that sent the beloved center, Kendric Perkins, and the high-energy, diminutive, back-up point-guard, Nate Robinson, to the Oklahoma City Thunder in exchange for Nenad Krstic and Jeff Green.

The emotional blow the team suffered upon hearing news of the transaction was very palpable in their first game without the two players against the Denver Nuggets.  Both players were integral parts who had significant roles on a very close-knit team.  The loss was almost predictable, not only from the sheer shock from the move, but also because the Celtics were left with only 8 players in uniform after Danny Ainge also traded reserve players Marquis Daniels, Semih Erden and Luke Harangody.

Aside from the obvious factors that arise from the departure of a player so engrained to his team and to a city, I think the devastation was compounded by the surprising nature of the deal.  It seemingly came out of nowhere.  It was almost like a sucker punch to the gut.  It was completely unexpected, and it knocked the collective breath out of an entire fan base.

Now that the clamor from the initial reaction of the trade has somewhat subsided, it’s a little easier to determine the method behind the madness.  With the Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal still sidelined with injuries, the Celtics were in desperate need of some healthy bodies.  Kendric Perkins will not even play for his new team for another 2-3 weeks, as his knee issues continue with a newly strained MCL. So, he would not have even been available for the Celtics for a while.  Although, Krstic might represent a fundamentally different player than Perkins, he does provide the C’s with another 7 foot option that can help stretch the floor offensively and provide productive minutes whenever Shaq needs a breather. 

 

The recent return of Delonte West facilitated the transfer of Nate Robinson for Jeff Green.  Green, only 24 years old, is a hybrid player who can fluctuate between the power forward and small forward position.  He is viewed as a player whose game is similar to former Celtic, James Posey, who played a vital role on the 2008 championship team.  He is long, athletic, can guard multiple positions defensively and can really be a solid option offensively as well.  He is an upgrade to Marquis Daniels, and will allow Doc Rivers to rest Paul Pierce a lot more down the stretch to ensure he is fresh for the playoffs.

It’s still difficult to rate the bevy of moves by Boston management, as the Celtics are rumored to be involved in negotiations with a couple players whose contracts have recently been bought out by their former teams and will become unrestricted free agents.  Troy Murphy, who was just bought out by the Golden State Warriors, is player who seems to be a rumor mill favorite in Boston.  At 6’11”, he is a versatile forward/center who can rebound and score from anywhere on the court.  As a starter last season for the Indiana Pacers, he averaged slightly less than 15 points per game and just over 10 rebounds a game. 

As of right now, Shaq appears to be on pace to return Wednesday night against the Phoenix Suns.  With all the recent shuffling of players, his health moving forward will be of the utmost importance.  This a legitimate concern for Boston fans, as he has struggled to maintain any sort of consistency throughout any stretch of the season thus far.

 

The Celtics are entering an important 9-game stretch where they will only face two opponents who currently have a winning record.  This will be a great opportunity for the newest additions to establish their roles on the team and build a level of comfort and confidence as the level of competition will permit for a more lenient margin for error.

With the Miami Heat’s recent struggles, the Celtics now have a two-game advantage over them in the loss column.  Miami also does not have the benefit of a fortunate schedule like the Celtics, as their next ten opponents all have winning records, including games against the Magic, the Spurs (2), the Lakers, the Thunder, and the Bulls, who have pulled within one game of the Heat for the second-best record in the East.

Therefore, with the larger picture in focus, patience is the name of the game for the Celtics over the remaining 24 regular season games.  Let’s reserve judgment until after the roster is completely filled out, and those vacancies created by all the trades are finally claimed.  Now, if recent D League call-up, Chris Johnson, is still wearing a Celtics jersey in a week or two, then we will certainly have some warranted gripes to hurl at Ainge and his staff.  But, for now, let’s wait and grant him the benefit of the doubt.

 

There might be some things to question Danny Ainge about, but his desire to win is definitely not one of them.  Let’s not forget that this is the same guy who tossed a white, Celtics towel in the air while sitting behind the hoop in an attempt to distract a J.J. Hickson free throw in last year’s playoff series against the Cavs.  If he’s willing to go to such great lengths on the sideline to influence a single point, I can only believe his championship intentions are sincere and his desire to raise another banner is very real.

So, cheer up Celtic fans.  There will be life after Kendric Perkins.  If there’s anything we’ve learned from this Celtic group, it’s that there’s no individual larger than the team.  With Ainge, we’re in good hands.  They might be a little crazy at times as well, but good hands, nonetheless.  Nothing is certain and no one knows how this will end.  Let this script play out, and if the end result is another title, then this will be nothing more than a mid-season side note. 

 

Who knows?  Maybe our old buddy, Perk, will play a huge role in defeating the hated Lakers and we’ll see him down the road later this season.  Crazier things have certainly happened!